Outlook 2021

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The Conference Board Economic Forecast

The National Election (and most of 2020) is in the books. Whether your candidate won or lost, we are now facing the day-to-day reality of moving forward. While the economy experienced the sharpest dive ever in the second quarter of 2020, it bounced back strongly. Most of the articles I’ve read are cautiously optimistic for 2021. While there will be definite winners and losers in commercial real estates, there is always opportunity.

Here are some of the more recent forecasts:

The World Monetary Fund Global Outlook published in June of 2020 stated:

In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020.

With the third wave of pandemic related illnesses, this projection may be even lower.

Goldman Sachs (Nov. 7, 2020)

At the most basic level, Goldman Sachs Research views the coronavirus recession as much more V-shaped than previous postwar cycles. Their forecasts are mostly above the “global consensus” and project strong economic growth in 2021. World growth at 6.0% and U.S. growth projected at 5.4%. One major assumption is that governments continue to replace lost wages and lost income due to the pandemic. Full Report available. Worth the read.

The Conference Board Nov. 13, 2020

Now that the election is over, The Conference Board predicts:

“real economic growth will rise by 2.2 percent* (annualized rate) in 4Q20 while the US economy continues to wrestle with the COVID-19 pandemic. This deceleration in the recovery follows a contraction of 5.0 percent in 1Q20, a contraction of 31.4 percent in 2Q20 and a rebound of 33.1 percent in 3Q20. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the US economy was 3.5 percent smaller in 3Q20 than it was prior to the pandemic in 4Q19.”

While the economy has partially rebounded from a deep contraction in the first half of 2020, a variety of factors will determine how the recovery unfolds in 2021. Obviously key factors are the availability and deployment of a vaccine, which seems immanent, and ongoing governments support for their economies.

Starting to wonder what’s really going on? Here’s another perspective:

2021 is a “5” numerological year. This energy is about personal freedom and changes. Unexpected things tend to happen. Changes tend to be more acceptable and tolerated.

The numerology energy for the universal year 5 resonates with a personal sense freedom. (While COVID-19 has certainly kept us restricted, with viable vaccines on the way, this sense of freedom will be palpable.)

People are likely to be more adaptable and take a chance on trying, learning about, or adopting a new interest.

Because the year’s energy is what it is, you are more likely be focused on freedom, especially the expression of your individual sense of freedom. (And I’d add “financial freedom” can be a big element here.)

If you’re asking yourself the question, “What does this mean for me?” you’re not alone.

Freedom!

Whatever the market does in 2021, you have two choices.  You can either wait for business to come to you, or you can build a success plan to take maximum advantage of opportunity.

There’s a saying that:

“if you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always have what you’ve always had.”

If that’s fine with you and you’re content to take your chances and see what 2021 brings, then please stop reading this article. You’ve already got everything you need.

But if you have a dream, a vision, a goal for a better year in 2021, [and who doesn’t?] then creating a Success Plan is the first step toward realizing that goal.

By creating a plan for greater success in 2021, you are:

  • Making a declaration of your intention to succeed
  • Creating a goal to which you will be held accountable
  • Choosing where to focus your attention in the coming year
  • Designing a blueprint to follow step by step.

Register for a FREE Strategy Session with a Sofia Capital Ventures Commercial Lending Expert and learn exactly what you need to do to build a success plan that works for you.

THIS IS NOT A WEBINAR – This is a live one-on-one session with a leading Commercial Lending Expert. There is no cost or obligation. The focus is on you.

However, we would be remiss if we did not also take a moment to introduce you to our Commercial Lending Academy.

CLICK HERE to schedule your appointment. Please put “FREE STRATEGY SESSION” in the subject line.